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#C2WX – #NTX/#TX – A North Texas Winter Storm Encore

After a New Year’s Eve/Day winter storm that teased those of us in the core of the Metroplex with the potential for snow, but dumped its load basically exclusively along and West of US-281, it’s looking like we’re getting another shot at seeing widespread winter weather across this great state starting tonight, through tomorrow, and even a smidgen into Monday.

The New Year’s winter storm was what’s called a “cutoff” low, where the low moves independently of the westerly flow that generally brings storms across the continental United States. This one won’t be one, because the polar jet’s dipped south enough to simply “swoop” it here into Texas.

As of 430pm on Saturday, the 9th here, the low’s current position is over New Mexico, where it’s kinda lying “low” (pun very much intended, thank you very much – I’ll be here all week, try the veal):

This low’ll slide on into Texas while simultaneously “getting active”, and bring conditions ranging from ‘cold rain’ to ‘wintry mix’ to ‘snow and more snow’ across the state.

When it comes to analyzing weather models, one of the things the meteorologist is looking for is consistency. Sure enough, the NAM, the GFS, the GEM (Canadian), & the ECMWF (European Union) models are now all agreeing that wintry weather will move west to east from the Panhandle and High Plains to Northeast and East Central Texas starting this evening (Sat) through the late night of Sunday and the wee hours of Monday: Panhandle and High Plains this evening and tonight to start… the Big Country and Concho Valley in the wee hours of Monday to start… North Central and Central Texas in the morning… and Northeast to East Central Texas around noontime to early afternoon…

Activity will also end from west to east around 12-18 hours after start in a given area.

Wintry weather will be along and north of a Big Bend – Austin – Bryan/College Station – Toledo Bend Reservoir line. South of this, expect just a cold rain, heavy at times, with maybe an odd ice pellet or snowflake, with the same timing as the wintry weather above.

Here’s the current watches and warnings nationwide, showing Texas… the pink is a Winter Storm Warning, the purple is a Winter Weather Advisory, the blue is a Winter Storm Watch. Also included are the explanations as to what those mean…

So, let’s talk amounts now. Generally, anywhere from a dusting to 4-5 inches. The models differ on  the prevalence of heavy snow bands developing within the storm, which – if they do- would lead to isolated incidences of 5-7 inches of snow. The Euro (ECMWF) is particular gung-ho on this happening in areas Southwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

Temperature-wise through Monday morning, expect lows ranging from the mid-teens in the Panhandle to the lower 30s in South Central Texas, and highs in the upper 20s in the North to the 30s further south. Winds will be blustery, averaging 15-30 mph, with gusts possibly as high as 50! This will cause it to FEEL much colder than it actually is, so govern y’all’sselves accordingly.

Whatever your local impacts, prepare and enjoy, y’all, while being safe. Here’s some tips for driving:

Don’t forget to prep your residences and businesses as well, y’all, and mind them Four Ps!

Also, make sure the people in your sphere, especially the vulnerable like children and the elderly, are set for the winter storm! Bring sensitive potted plants into warm environments (or at least not-as-cold) and cover outside plants that can’t be moved.

Don’t forget to do your part as a citizen scientist! Report on mPING regularly what’s going on at your current location (make sure your mobile device’s GPS/location services is on and accurate!) and, before this thing’s even started, set out a “snow board” and make measurements to report during and after the storm, as the Fort Worth NWS office describes here:

And also consider SKYWARN training (here’s info for North Texas, and there’s ample online courses to be found), taking COMET/MetEd courses, & training for/joining the Spotter Network, y’all, to really up your citizen meteorologist game!

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