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Godliness

#RBStormStalkers – Let’s Talk Turkey – Southern Plains Severe Outlook, Sun-Mon, Oct 10-11, 2021 – Liveblog

As Sunday starts, expect a low to form in the southern High Plains right over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, which will fire up storms late morning in the greater region. It’ll even snow in the higher elevations on the western fringes of the system in North Central New Mexico and South Central Colorado.

This low will take a very “Panhandle hooker” track, swinging northeastward across Oklahoma before ejecting out via the Ozarks early Monday.

What this means for Texas and Oklahoma is a distinct chance of severe weather, here in our “secondary severe peak” called autumn.

Timeline

This is in Central Daylight Time, & is approximate (+/- 1.5 hours). Use the Zulu (Z) times in conjunction with the map.

  • Late Morning through Afternoon: Non-severe storms form in the Southern High Plains, and in East Texas, with a main direction of SW-NE. This spreads into Western Oklahoma by early afternoon.
  • Evening (starting at 17:00/5PM/22Z): Storms in Central Oklahoma start to turn strong to severe in a “scattered supercells amongst other storm clusters” format. If you live in Southwestern, South Central, or Central Oklahoma, including the OKC area, be aware! Meanwhile, a broken squall line, associated with the low’s cold front, starts to form over the Concho Valley and Big Country. This complex will move from West to East.
  • Early Night (around 20:00/8PM/01Z): The squall line stretches from just East of Wichita Falls, though Eastland, down to around Junction, & has embedded strong and severe storm cells, as the Oklahoma storms start to congeal into a line aligned with this one from downtown OKC to the South-Southwest.
    • 21:00/9PM/02Z: The squall is approaching the heart of North Central Texas – the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex – & is on the doorstep of Central Texas.
    • 22:00/10PM/03Z: It’s go time for the Metroplex & vicinity; the line approaches the heart of Central Texas and, in Oklahoma, is moving out of Central and into East.
    • 23:00/11PM/04Z: The squall’s moving into Northeast Texas. The heart of Central Texas & Eastern Oklahoma is getting hit, while South Central’s about to.
  • This trend will continue overnight, so if you live in Texas from the Texas State Highway 72 area on North and East, keep an eye to your West for the storms to roll in. By the time the sun is fully up on Monday, the storms will be in Arkansas and Louisiana (almost all below severe limits), with a few lingerers in far SE Texas.
Concerns

The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced (Level 3) Risk of severe weather for the hearts of the Oklahoma-Texas Red River border + South Central, Central, and East Central Oklahoma. This is surrounded by a Slight Risk that, most notably, covers the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, most of the Ark-La-Tex, & the Ozarks. Finally, a Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight, notably including the Texas Hill Country, East Central Texas, Central Arkansas, & Central Missouri.

Along with the usual heavy rain & lightning, all modes are possible – large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Tornadoes are most likely in areas with clusters & supercells.

What to Do
  • Use the StormStalkers Guide for overall guidance.
  • Stay tuned to sources of weather information: this liveblog (updated regularly from Sunday afternoon until very early Monday) & website (including showcases & links), the StormStalkers Facebook page, & – for the best results – our Discord & Telegram. NOAA All-Hazards Radio, preferably with SAME. Make sure your mobile device(s) can get Wireless Emergency Alerts, and have an app, like WeatherBug, that notifies of watches, warnings, and advisories. Stay tuned to local broadcast TV & radio, too.
  • Have a severe weather preparedness plan!

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