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#RBStormStalkers – Let’s Talk Turkey – Southern Plains Severe Outlook, Sun-Mon, Oct 10-11, 2021 – Liveblog

As Sunday starts, expect a low to form in the southern High Plains right over the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, which will fire up storms late morning in the greater region. It’ll even snow in the higher elevations on the western fringes of the system in North Central New Mexico and South Central Colorado.

This low will take a very “Panhandle hooker” track, swinging northeastward across Oklahoma before ejecting out via the Ozarks early Monday.

What this means for Texas and Oklahoma is a distinct chance of severe weather, here in our “secondary severe peak” called autumn.

Timeline

This is in Central Daylight Time, & is approximate (+/- 1.5 hours). Use the Zulu (Z) times in conjunction with the map.

  • Late Morning through Afternoon: Non-severe storms form in the Southern High Plains, and in East Texas, with a main direction of SW-NE. This spreads into Western Oklahoma by early afternoon.
  • Evening (starting at 17:00/5PM/22Z): Storms in Central Oklahoma start to turn strong to severe in a “scattered supercells amongst other storm clusters” format. If you live in Southwestern, South Central, or Central Oklahoma, including the OKC area, be aware! Meanwhile, a broken squall line, associated with the low’s cold front, starts to form over the Concho Valley and Big Country. This complex will move from West to East.
  • Early Night (around 20:00/8PM/01Z): The squall line stretches from just East of Wichita Falls, though Eastland, down to around Junction, & has embedded strong and severe storm cells, as the Oklahoma storms start to congeal into a line aligned with this one from downtown OKC to the South-Southwest.
    • 21:00/9PM/02Z: The squall is approaching the heart of North Central Texas – the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex – & is on the doorstep of Central Texas.
    • 22:00/10PM/03Z: It’s go time for the Metroplex & vicinity; the line approaches the heart of Central Texas and, in Oklahoma, is moving out of Central and into East.
    • 23:00/11PM/04Z: The squall’s moving into Northeast Texas. The heart of Central Texas & Eastern Oklahoma is getting hit, while South Central’s about to.
  • This trend will continue overnight, so if you live in Texas from the Texas State Highway 72 area on North and East, keep an eye to your West for the storms to roll in. By the time the sun is fully up on Monday, the storms will be in Arkansas and Louisiana (almost all below severe limits), with a few lingerers in far SE Texas.
Concerns

The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced (Level 3) Risk of severe weather for the hearts of the Oklahoma-Texas Red River border + South Central, Central, and East Central Oklahoma. This is surrounded by a Slight Risk that, most notably, covers the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, most of the Ark-La-Tex, & the Ozarks. Finally, a Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight, notably including the Texas Hill Country, East Central Texas, Central Arkansas, & Central Missouri.

Along with the usual heavy rain & lightning, all modes are possible – large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Tornadoes are most likely in areas with clusters & supercells.

What to Do
  • Use the StormStalkers Guide for overall guidance.
  • Stay tuned to sources of weather information: this liveblog (updated regularly from Sunday afternoon until very early Monday) & website (including showcases & links), the StormStalkers Facebook page, & – for the best results – our Discord & Telegram. NOAA All-Hazards Radio, preferably with SAME. Make sure your mobile device(s) can get Wireless Emergency Alerts, and have an app, like WeatherBug, that notifies of watches, warnings, and advisories. Stay tuned to local broadcast TV & radio, too.
  • Have a severe weather preparedness plan!

Liveblog - #RBStormStalkers – Thu, Sep 30-Fri, Oct 1, 2021 – Storminess for Texas – Liveblog

Here in Fort Worth, things are actually quite calm right now. It’s mostly wall-to-wall sunshine… but that’ll quickly change.

At the moment, there’s a “tropical” wave of showers and storms traveling North from the Texas Gulf Coast (main direction S to N)… a low/cold-front wave currently storming from just east of Wichita Falls, draped down towards the Midland-Odessa area, and back up towards East Central New Mexico (main direction NW to SE)… and another, dryline-caused, wave developing in the Big Bend area (main direction SW to NE)

All these will continue their current trajectories through the rest of today, overnight, and into the morning hours of Friday. Expect basically all of the state, except the far northern Panhandle, to have a fairly likely chance of getting some kinda storminess by the late evening. The dryline & cold front storms have up to a Slight risk of severe associated with them, as shown on the map.

The risks in the Severe threat areas are hail up to teacup size, winds up to high tropical-storm force (60+mph), & perhaps a tornado. Outside of this area, storms will mainly be just heavy rain & lightning affairs, with the strongest ones bringing hail to quarter size & winds to 60mph.

Liveblog - #RBStormStalkers – North Texas Weather Liveblog – September 28-29, 2021

#NorthTexas #Weather Situation – Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021:

Warm & more humid with a nice change – namely, a return to some active weather here in the region. Scattered showers & storms have become the thing in the southwestern part of the region. This activity will spread NE over the rest of the evening, expand, & persist over the next few days – likely, through Saturday, with activity peaking during the day & minimizing at night – generally.

Expect the main storm direction to be from SW-NE, or W-E. Concerns: heavy rain, lightning, small hail, somewhat gusty winds. Truly severe weather appears to be a remote, though not zero, risk.

Otherwise, expect variably cloudy skies with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s/low 70s, humid, with winds outside of storms between 5-15 mph mainly from the South or Southeast.

#Weather #Wx #dfwwx #txwx #texas #dallas #fortworth #wxtwitter #wxgab #severeweather #uswx

#PC2StormStalkers: Eyes on Nicholas

After Mindy formed with the quickness of the smooth criminal, bringing a quick shot of gusty storms to the Panhandle of Florida & vicinity, before shooting off into the open Atlantic, we now have Nicholas, formed from the organizing of a tropical wave in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

His outer bands are already bringing some storminess to the Texas Coast as I type this lil article out.

As Monday presses on, expect the storminess to continue & expand from Brownsville to Lake Charles + vicinities, and several hundred miles inland, as ol’ Nick drifts north. That’s basically a certainty by this point. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for most of the Texas Coast, along with Flash Flood Watches, Storm Surge Watches & Warnings, & a Hurricane Watch for the just-in-case Nick becomes a marginal Cat 1 prior to landfall.

The models are in some disagreement as to speed & path. Nick may go slower or faster, and, after riding up the Texas Coast from his current center off the NE coast of Mexico, travel into the heart of Central/East Central Texas to chill here a while – or speed off northeast towards Louisiana & the rest of the Deep South. Be prepared across the South for Nick’s impacts, y’all. We here in #NorthTexas stand to get some much-needed isolated to scattered storms from Nick, too! Stay tuned to reliable info sources – including PC2S2 here!

We’re mainly looking at a heavy rain event, with winds secondary. As hinted at by the warnings issued, there is potential for storm surge up to 5-8 feet where the center goes along the coast. As is usual with tropical systems, tornadoes are an acute risk, too – especially in outer bands.

 

Andy Ngo on Adam Carolla

Andy Ngo on Adam Carolla. Don’t miss it. #antifa #terrorism #investigativereporting

 

Panicked Democrats switch from ‘defund’ to ‘refund’ the police

Turns out, if you want Norway-grade #policing, you gotta do rational reforms & be ready to pay for it – not following the “defund” train that only leads to dire consequences & backlash.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/panicked-democrats-switch-from-defund-to-refund-the-police

#police #defundthepolice #policereform #civilization

#PC2StormStalkers – #NTX – Never Stop Learning

#NeverStopLearning

This morning is a great example of “sometimes the outlier is right” and to the fallibility of being only human. A lesson for yours truly.

The cold front sliding through North Texas right now was expected by most models to pass dry. Only one really said “there will be a storm cluster”. I didn’t even bother to account for it in my forecast.

“Eh. The conditions aren’t right… That doesn’t look right… I’ll not even bother mentioning the possibility, as it’s so remote.”

Sure enough, I just got awoken by this… 🤣

#c2wx #pc2s2 #txwx #dfwwx #dfw #weather #fortworth #dallas

Stay #Harmonious. 🌿💚💯

Stay #Harmonious. 🌿💚💯

RT by @mesynsupreme: Yo How are you Twitter? I wasn’t able to do all of the stuff I wanted to do this week but that’s ok, we knocked out what we did knock out together and y’all MVP’s in my book.

Yo How are you Twitter?

I wasn’t able to do all of the stuff I wanted to do this week but that’s ok, we knocked out what we did knock out together and y’all MVP’s in my book.

RT by @mesynsupreme: Politically homeless here. This cartoon sums it up perfectly

Politically homeless here. This cartoon sums it up perfectly